How The Stock Market Predicts Trump's Impeachment

It’s the new year and all sorts of experts are forecasting this and that, usually spelling doom for President Trump. By the looks of their forecasts (or wishful thinking), Trump quits in 2019; is impeached; or does not run for office in 2020 because his approval numbers drop into the low 30s as Fox News ditches Trump for his decision to abandon the Washington War Machine.True? Only time will tell.This week, Alan Hall from the Socionomics Institute, a division of Elliott Wave International, put out a detailed report on how the declining stock market may be a harbinger of things to come for the president. Much of the Institute’s analysis is loosely based on behavioral economics. At the heart of their analysis of markets is that social mood is the primary driver of social action. And that includes buying stocks. History shows that the stock market is a useful indicator of people’s attitudes toward the president. Socionomic theory proposes that society’s overall mood regulates both stock prices and the public’s perceptions of its leaders.“These tendencies are evident in presidential reelection outcomes. Presidents Hoover and Carter lost bids for reelection during trends toward negative social mood as reflected by declining stock prices,” Hall says, adding that the stock market is a better reelection indicator than inflation, unemployment and GDP growth combined. Bill Clinton beat George H. W. Bush because of a weak stock market and economy. He was also helped along by a chunk of the electorate choosing independent candidate Ross Perot.