Stock Market Now In Red Zone; Emotional Onslaught Is Near
John S. Tobey | December 15, 2018
Eleven days ago, in “Wake Up: Stocks Are In A Bear Market, So Sell Something,” I described the five steps I thought were in store for the stock market. Driven by fundamental unknowns/negatives, an ugly technical picture and heightened, emotion-driven decision-making, the market is free to wander, run and gap up or down. This bear market can last months and even more than a year. In addition, it can fall to levels that may seem inconceivable now: down 25%, 35%, 50% -- any depth is possible. There are so many fundamental issues in play that there is a real possibility of a rolling recession, where reversals in one area spark setbacks in another.Moreover, the market has an unusual technical picture, something that is studied when fundamentals become doubtful. That steady rise in 2017 left the market with few price barriers where the market paused and created a foundation. That means the nice, low volatility rise last year could become a slippery slope next year. That picture is evident in this graph of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the most commonly discussed index in times of investor excitement and anxiety).