Bear Market Rally Will Stall Or Accelerate Based On This Week's Closes

Richard Henry Suttmeier | January 13, 2019

Bear Market Rally Will Stall Or Accelerate Based On This Week's Closes
The bear market for stocks began when the five major equity averages began to crash in early-October. At the end of September, the 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings were above 90.00 on a scale of 00.00 to 100.00. Readings above 80.00 are overbought and I consider readings above 90.00 as an “inflating parabolic bubbles” and bubbles always pop. By mid-October the weekly charts became negative.At the Christmas bottom the five major equity averages were oversold with stochastic readings below 20.00 and each were down by 20% or more from their all-time intraday highs. The S&P 500 provided the signal that a rebound would happen when it held its “reversion to the mean” (200-week simple moving average) at 2,348.81 on December 26.The signal that a bear market rally could be sustained came from the Dow Jones Transportation Average. My call as 2019 began was that Dow Transports would hold my new semiannual value level of 8,858 and the low was 8,850.49 on January 3. On January 4, transports closed that week above its reversion to the mean at 9,108.77, confirming the bear market rally.We begin this week with all five averages still in correction territory, down between 11% and 17.2% from their 2018 highs. On the other side of the coin all five major averages are up between 10.5% and 14.2% above their Christmas lows.

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